$NVAX (Novavax, Inc.)

By admin | 10/26/2020

Discovering an Actionable Social Media Post Hours Prior to Other Outlets

This case exhibits the Hammerstone team discovering an actionable social media post hours before the  majority of the Street’s trading desks did and Hammerstone follow up posts.

On October 26, 2020,  the Hammerstone team alerted our subscribers to a Tweet from an influential & vetted Twitter account that specializes in biotechnology.  The tweet stated there was chatroom/message board chatter that vaccine development company Novavax may be delaying their Phase 3 COVID-19 vaccine trial.  Since the tweet mentioned the word “rumor”, the Hammerstone forum understood the nature of the information.  Hammerstone had verified that there was chatter but could not confirm it beyond “chatter.”

Over the course of the afternoon Novavax shares traded in a tight range slightly above and below the $89.34 price at the time of Hammerstone’s post.  However, at 3:45 PM several news outlets & stock chatrooms reported on the information posted by Hammerstone hours earlier, causing $NVAX shares to abruptly sell off 2.2% or $2 within minutes.  Furthermore, the negative $NVAX chatter on social media continued to disseminate overnight resulting in a lower pre-market $NVAX stock price.  The selling finally stopped upon the issuance of a  press release from Novavax shortly after 9 AM giving an update on their Phase 3 trial.

Monday, October 26th
HsMkt (1:55:31 pm): $NVAX
@TrustedTwitterSource $NVAX rumors making the rounds on Yahoo! and IV [investorvillage.com] that US phase III trial start delayed to mid-Nov. 3-week delay not good; more important question is the Why?

HsMkt (3:45:23 pm): $NVAX new low’s down over 6% now on Vaccine delay chatter

Tuesday, October 27^th

HsMkt (8:54:39 am):  $NVAX -2.7% (-$2.38); Novavax Social Media Volume Quadruples; Sentiment Is Negative

HsMkt (9:04:53 am): $NVAX @TrustedTwitterSource
$NVAX Novavax Provides Phase 3 #COVID19 Vaccine Clinical Development Update
5,500 volunteers enrolled to date in pivotal Phase 3 trial in the U.K.
Study expanded to 15,000 participants
Full enrollment expected by end of November.
Event-driven interim data expected in Q’21

Oct. 26 – Afternoon trading leading to 3:45 sell-off

Oct. 26-27 – Pre-market weakness (sub $85 sales) into rally off of press release